2022 NBA Draft Big Board

Here is my board with my quick thoughts. I ranked the consensus top 30 players. I’d love to rank all the second rounders, 2-ways, and training camp invite guys, but I think it’s a pointless exercise because those players’ careers will be dictated more by whether an NBA team decides to give them an honest crack and less on their actual playing ability. I bother to rank the consensus top 30 guys because you can more or less trust that teams will at least give them a shot and that their careers are more likely to swing on their actual playing ability and less on the whims of NBA teams and skill of agents.

Last year I was very confident that Evan Mobley was better than Cade Cunningham, and I was right. I was also higher than consensus on Scottie Barnes and Franz Wagner, and that looks smart too. I probably ranked Sengun and Jalen Johnson too aggressively, but, overall I avoided making egregious errors and probably outperformed NBA teams, which was my goal.

Hopefully I keep it up.

My main “edges” in this draft are:

• Paolo should be #1

• Consensus is devaluing size (both bigs and big wings) and overvaluing 6’4-6’6 shooting guards with meh profiles

• When in doubt, I trust the numbers more than my own eyes

• Consensus still fades age too much

  • Having a productive player on his rookie contract is… good. Having a nonproductive player on his rookie contract who only becomes productive when he gets expensive is… less good.

BIG BOARD

1. Paolo Banchero

2. Jabari Smith Jr.

3. Chet Holmgren

4. Keegan Murray

5. Jaden Ivey

6. Tari Eason

7. Mark Williams

8. Dyson Daniels

9. Jalen Duren

10. Benedict Mathurin

11. Shaedon Sharpe

12. E.J. Liddell

13. AJ Griffin

14. Jeremy Sochan

15. Walker Kessler

16. Jake LaRavia

17. Johnny Davis

18. Malaki Branham

19. Jalen Williams

20. Ousmane Dieng

21. Kennedy Chandler

22. TyTy Washington

23. Ochai Agbaji

24. Blake Wesley

25. Wendell Moore

26. Dalen Terry

27. Christain Braun

28. Jaden Hardy

29. Marjon Beauchamp

30. Nikola Jovic

PART 1 - SORTING THE CONSENSUS TOP 3

1. Paolo Banchero

Duke Blue Devils. Power Forward. 19.6 Years Old. 6'10. 7'1 wingspan. 250 lbs.

2. Jabari Smith Jr.

Auburn Tigers. Power Forward. 19.1 years old. 6'10 7'1 wingspan 220 lbs.

3. Chet Holmgren

Gonzaga Bulldogs. Center. 20.1 years old. 7’1 7’6 wingspan 195 lbs.

Paolo, Jabari, and Chet are the consensus top 3 this year, but most have Paolo ranked third between the 3.

That’s incorrect.

Paolo is a 6’10 250 lb. 3-level scorer with an advanced passing game and a solid handle. He has real initiator ability at 6’10. His complete skill level at that size is extremely rare. Paolo is the same size (if not bigger) than Blake Griffin, Julius Randle, and Ben Simmons, but his overall skill level is much stronger than all 3 of them at the same age (Simmons may have been the better handler and passer, but Paolo dwarfs him as a shooter), and with his passing indicators, arguably has a better basketball IQ than them too. Simmons and Griffin were undeniably more athletic, and both stuffed the boxscore better with more favorable analytical profiles, but Banchero doesn’t have any glaring statistical weakness and again has the more promising skill level. That Banchero can be reasonably compared to Simmons and Griffin speaks volumes that he is the correct number one pick.

It’s laughable that Cade Cunningham was the consensus #1 last year (despite Evan Mobley being clearly the better prospect) while Paolo cannot even crack the top 2 in a weaker draft despite being 4 inches taller than Cade, scoring more efficiently, and posting the better assist-to-turnover ratio.

The main knocks on Paolo are concerns about: 1) his defensive mobility; 2) his efficiency; and 3) stat-sheet stuffing. I don’t care about concern 1. Tons of prospects with good physical tools drastically improve their defense in the NBA (Ben Simmons, Jayson Tatum, etc.). Paolo is athletic enough and sharp enough to not be bad on defense. Concerns 2 and 3 are legitimate and why Paolo isn’t a stronger #1 overall prospect (Evan Mobely was comfortably superior). But those exact same concerns were also levied at Jayson Tatum and he turned out…. Very well. The concerns are enough to knock Paolo as against all time great prospects, but he’s still #1 in this draft.

Turning to Jabari and Chet…

Jabari is one of the best 6’10 shooting prospects ever who was elite from 3pt and midrange and showed good defensive agility. However, his handle and rim finishing ability are very weak for a top 3 pick (as evidenced by his awful finishing and rim attempt numbers), which is why he is clearly a cut below Paolo. How many elite prospects ever in NBA history were so ineffective at the rim…? Jabari isn’t in good company here. A “6’10 Klay Thompson” sounds great in theory, but Klay is such an all-time elite shooter that comparing Jabari to him based on one season of shooting isn’t the sharpest move. As for the people who think he’s Paul George or Kawhi Leonard defensively because he has quick feet… Maybe? Gambling on Paolo’s initiator abilities feels smart than hoping Jabari becomes the GOAT 3-and-D player and justifies the #1 slot. I still like him though.

I also like Chet. He crushed the advanced metrics (which I value more than the eye test usually). I think he’ll be a rim protecting, 3-point launching big, with some mobility, which is a valuable archetype. He has a solid runway to be better than Myles Turner, which is a really good player. But I don’t buy any of the “Chet will create offense arguments.” Everyone talks about Chet being skinny hurting him on defense–but it will hurt him most on offense. He’s going to struggling to put the ball on the floor and gain separation without being stripped. This is why his usage was only 4th highest on Gonzaga: he wasn’t that good at creating because the athletes were better than what he faced in highschool and FIBA. A similar story will unfold in the NBA. The arguments that Mark Few hid him are dumb. Chet was allowed to initiate in transition because he could grab-and-go without his handle getting stripped. He didn’t initiate as much in the half court because he wasn’t that good at it. I still see Chet as a super useful high IQ floor spacer and potent rim protector. He’s solid value at #3.

PART 2 - EXCITING LOTTERY SWINGS

4. Keegan Murray

Iowa Hawkeyes. Forward. 21.8 years old. 6’8 6’11’ wingspan 225 lbs.

Keegan has the best advanced stats profile in the draft. Amongst drafted forwards Keegan’s percentile ranks were: 100 (!!) for TOVs; 93.2 for blocks; and 89.5 for true shooting despite being 88.3 for usage. That’s incredible! His only statistical weakness is his assists, which ranks at 33. That’s why I don’t have him higher. He also probably lacks the handle and burst to be a go-to initiator. But he scores so efficiently and quickly through nearly every play type while still playing above-average defense, moving the ball, and shooting well, that he has a great path to being a plus starter in the NBA for a long time. I can easily see him being peak TJ Warren. And his statistical dominance at least gives him some upside for more….

The big concerns are his initiation struggles (which I mostly concede), and his age. But he at least improved rapidly from freshman to sophomore age and appears to be a late bloomer physically, which suggests he has a longer growth tail than most old prospects.

5. Jaden Ivey

Purdue Boilermakers. Guard. 20.4 years old. 6’4 6’9 wingspan 195 lbs.

Ivey is one of the best guard athletes I’ve ever scouted. He approaches the level of Dwayne Wade, Russell Westbrook, and Ja Morant. He’s probably just as athletic as Victor Oladipo and Donovan Mitchell. His first step, acceleration, and vertical leaping ability are all elite.

Unfortunately his basketball skills and IQ are lackluster compared to those great guards. His handle is loose, he misses reads, he’s poor defensively despite good physical physicals, and he had a bad A/TO. The big positive for Ivey is that his jumper drastically improved from his freshman to sophomore season. I trust him to hit it at the NBA level–even off movement. That he drastically improved a skill over the course of one summer is encouraging and makes me somewhat willing to bet on his ability to improve. Work ethic and elite physical tools are a great foundation to build on (see Jaylen Brown, Giannis Antekounmpo). While a below-average basketball IQ and skill level is pretty bad for a guard in the top-5, I’ll take the swing at 5.

6. Tari Eason

LSU Tigers. Forward. 21.1 years old. 6’8 7’2 wingspan 217 lbs.

Tari Eason was an uber productive 6’8 wing who was a defensive dynamo, stat sheet stuffer, and surprisingly prolific and efficient shot creator. His big flaws are that he’s a bad passer and turns it over. Those flaws are pretty concerning and are a good reason not to rank him any higher. But otherwise he was statistically dominant while playing the most valued position in the NBA.

7. Big Mark Williams

Duke Blue Devils. Center. 20.5 years old. 7’2 7’7 wingspan 242 lbs.

Big Mark has the second highest standing reach ever recorded in NBA history, surpassed only by Tacko Fall. But unlike Tacko, Mark is pretty agile and coordinated for a 7’2 player with some mobility, and he was very productive at Duke. He finished everything around the basket, protected the rim, and showed *some* mobility on the perimeter. He even flashed a little passing and shooting touch. Bigs are being devalued right now, but I still think they have a very important place in the show. Especially once coaches start coming up with more zone oriented schemes to keep their bigs close to the rim and not have them guard 30 feet out. I wish Duke’s defense was a little better, but I’m willing to attribute that to Coach K’s age and the poor defensive play of one Roach, Jeremy. Productive players with feel and elite tools, like Mark, are rare, and they should be valued appropriately.

PART 3 - CLEAR FIRST ROUND VALUE

8. Dyson Daniels

G League Ignite. Shooting Guard. 19.3 years old. 6’7.5 6’11 wingspan 195 lbs.

Daniels is young, on a great growth trajectory (he underwent a growth spurt this year and improved over the course of the season), and was good at everything but scoring efficiently in the G League. Scoring is important, which is why I don’t have him higher, but the allure as a 6’7.5 guy who’s rapidly improving and has real defensive and playmaking skills is worth a gamblw.

9. Jalen Duren

Memphis Tigers. Center. 18.6 years old. 6’11 7’5 wingspan 250 lbs.

Duren is super young, incredibly toosly with a jacked frame and jump-out-of-the-gym leaping, and managed to be pretty productive in a dysfunctional Memphis offensive system. He wasn’t good enough statistically to pencil in as a sure-fire starter, but with his youth and tools, it’s easy to envision him getting there. He may also have some sneaky upside, as he will be one of the more physically talented centers in the NBA and his basketball IQ does not appear broken. He’s good value for where he’s ranked in this draft.

10. Benedict Mathurin

Arizona Wildcats. Shooting Guard. 20.0 years old. 6’6 6’9 wingspan 205 lbs.

Mathurin has solid size for a shooting guard prospect while posting good TOV, 3PA, and rebound rates. But he has suspiciously low steals, blocks, and assists for a supposedly athletic player. Kentavious Caldwell Pope crushes him hard as a prospect at the same age and even KCP who is a low-usage player in the NBA, had a substantially higher usage than Mathurin. I suspect Mathurin doesn’t quite have the feel or elite skill to be a really positive starter at 6’6. But he still has a good runway to being a good rotation player.

11. Shaedon Sharpe

Highschool. Shooting Guard. 19.1 years old. 6’5 7’0 wingspan 198 lbs.

I have little to go on with Shaedon because he’s only ever played highschool basketball, so it’s nearly impossible to do a smart, objective analysis of him. He appears to be a great vertical athlete, a promising shooter, and a relatively underwhelming passer and defensive playmaker. Here’s a fun exercise: a (quick, imprecise) ranking of all the top 10 RSCI players 6’5 and under since 2008 (I excluded the 2021 and 2020 classes since those players are too early in their careers to be accurately judged).

1-6: Kyrie Irving, John Wall, Jrue Holiday, Bradley Beal, Anthony Edwards, De’Aron Fox

7-12: Marcus Smart, Tyrese Maxey, Tyreke Evans, Anfernee Simons, Lance Stephenson, Colin Sexton

13-18: Avery Bradley, Brandon Jennings, Tyus Jones, Cole Anthony, Brandon Knight, Austin Rivers

19-24: Markelle Fultz, Quentin Grimes, Malik Monk, RJ Hampton, Romeo Langford, Josh Christopher

25-30: Emmanuel Mudiay, Rashad Vaughn, Archie Goodwin, Kenny Boyton, Marquis Teague, Andrew Harrison,

31-36: Aaron Harrison, Scottie Lewis, Josh Selby, Malik Newman Nico Mannion, Trevon Duval

So, per the last 14 years of history, a 6’5 and under top-10 RSCI recruit has: a ⅙ in chance of being he 2nd-3rdish best guy on a great team; a ⅙ in chance of being a good starter-good rotation player; a ⅓ chance of being a useful to not-that-useful rotation player; a ⅓ chance of busting out of the league entirely; and a 0% chance of being a MVP. The average career for this group of players is approximately Austin Rivers.

That’s pretty inauspicious for young Shaedon. Can we really be so confident, based on just his highschool tape, that he belongs in the top group of these players…? Watch Austin River or heck even Trevon Duval and Josh Selby mixes and see how good they looked in highschool...

Looking at this range of distributions, ranking Shaedon here feels right. I don’t think my eye test is good enough to judge him accurately based on limited high school tape, so I’ll bet on history instead.

12. E.J. Liddell

Ohio State Buckeyes. Forward. 21.5 years old. 6’7 7’0 wingspan 243 lbs.

Liddell had a dominant season as a 6’7 guy in a high major conference. He had a big usage and was a prolific scorer while making plays on both ends and hitting 3s. The main concerns for him are that he has a strangely low steal rate and his strong 3pt shooting this year may have been flukey. But he has the profile and game of a player capable of contributing in the playoffs.

13. AJ Griffin

Duke Blue Devils. Wing. 19.1 years old. 6’6 6’11 wingspan 222 lbs.

A.J. was excellent at making shots from every area of the floor (including taking and making tons of 3s) while avoiding turning the ball over. He was… very mediocre at every other part of basketball. The good news with him is that he’s still young and returning from an injury, so it’s possible to make the argument that his floor game could improve. The bad news is that he might not be good enough at basketball (outside of shooting) to be an impact player in the league. My gut tells me that most of the time he’s Aaron Nesmith, but it’s hard to completely write him off.

14. Jeremy Sochan

Baylor Bears. Power Forward. 19.1 years old. 6’9 7’0 wingspan 230 lbs.

Sochan’s main selling point is that he has great perimeter defensive ability for a 6’9 player, showing quick feet while compiling a strong steal rate. “Switchy” guys with size are all the rage right now in the NBA, so it’s easy to see why teams are interested in him. His rim protection and rebounding profiles as slightly above average for an NBA 4, so it’s difficult to envision him as an elite small ball 5 like Draymond. Further Draymond beats Sochan significantly in passing. Sochan was also an inefficient scorer. I like his perimeter defensive mobility and youth, but I don’t see much else here to get excited about. If you’re betting on him, you’re betting on outlier development. There’s no evidence he’s Draymond-Green level smart at basketball.

15. Walker Kessler

Auburn Tigers. Center. 20.9 years old. 7’1 7’4 wingspan 256 lbs.

Mr. Kessler had one of the best stock rates ever for a center while leading Auburn to a top 10 defense, scoring efficiently (albeit in a low usage role), and not turning the ball over. His assist rates and rebounding were unimpressive, and it’s fair to wonder whether he’s quick enough to survive defensively in the NBA, but his defensive dominance and rim protection was unique enough that he’s a fun mid first gamble in this draft.

16. Jake LaRavia

Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Forward. 20.6 years old. 6’8 6’10 wingspan 227 lbs.

Jakes offers a nice role playing package as a relatively young 6’8 player. He scored efficiently, got to the line, and passed very well while holding his own in stocks. His rebounding rate was surprisingly low and he’s not going to be creating his own shot, but he has good enough shooting indicators to profile as a 3-and-d guy who knows how to move the ball and play smart on both ends. I’m a big fan.

17. Johnny "the badger" Davis

Wisconsin Badgers. Guard. 19.1 years old. 6’6 6’9 wingspan 196 lbs.

Johnny was forced into a massive usage role at Wisconsin despite not being an efficient scorer or passer. But he’s good at every other part of basketball and posted good stocks and rebounds despite being an overused creator. It’s easy to envision him flourishing in a more natural low-usage NBA role. His 3pt shooting wasn’t great this season, but I trust him to be more accurate in a lower usage role. I see lots of ways for him to be a rotation guard for a playoff team, which is pretty valuable. Matthurin is the superior scorer and athlete, which is why it’s fair to rank him ahead of Johnny, but Johnny has the better floor game.

18. Malaki Branham

Ohio State Buckeyes. Shooting Guard. 19.1 years old. 6’5.5 6’10 195 lbs.

Malaki’s strengths are that he’s young and scored efficiently without turning it over. Otherwise he didn’t display any special feel, creation, or defensive ability. He’s a decent youth bet but I’m not *that* excited about him.

PART IV - MURKIER PROJECTED FIRST ROUNDERS

19. Jalen Williams

Santa Clara Broncos. Wing. 21.2 years old. 6’6 7’2 wingspan 209 lbs.

Jalen Williams has nice length for a 6’6 player with a 7’2 wingspan. He was pretty productive in the WCC but posted confusingly low block and rebound rates, which suggests he may not be athletic enough to be a good NBA player. However, he looked good athletically at the combine scrimmages, so that helps. Another concern is that his great 3pt shooting this season was somewhat of a fluke. But on the other hand, he’s a pretty decent passer for a guy with a 7’2 wingspan and showed some off the dribble juice. I like him a little more than Ochai, but I have similar concerns about both players.

20. Ousmane Dieng

New Zealand Breakers. Power Forward. 19.1 years old. 6’10 7’0 wingspan 200 lbs.

Ousmane is young with intriguing physical tools. Unfortunately, the only standout basketball skill he displayed in the NBL was his ability to shamelessly take and miss a lot of shots. His efficiency, feel, and defense indicators are all poor. He’s favored enough by consensus that he’ll get some good development opportunities, and he may turn out ok, but he’s not a bet I'm interested in.

21. Kennedy Chandler

Tennessee Volunteers. Point Guard. 19.8 years old. 6’0.5 6’5 wingspan 172 lbs.

Chandler is young, quick, and posted a good freshman season as a lead guard in the NBA. However, he faces an uphill battle to make a strong impact in the NBA as he is only 6’0.5. Nevertheless, he grades similarly to Tyus Jones, with a better assist and steal rate but worse FTR and FT%. Tyus is only somewhat impactful in the NBA, so it’s not the best mold for Chandler but it’s not the worse either.

22. TyTy Washington

Kentucky Wildcats. Guard. 20.6 years old. 6’4 6’8 wingspan 196 lbs.

TyTy plays a low value mold as a small guard and didn’t have any impressive statistical production at Kentucky. But he also wasn’t awful, and Calipari has a penchant for hiding the abilities of his guards. He’s a fine gamble in the back of the first.

23. Ochai Agbaji

Kansas Jayhawks. Forward. 21.1 years old. 6’8 7’2 wingspan 217 lbs.

I don’t see Ochai’s appeal. Most of his big senior improvement came from him taking a big 3pt leap which is nice but it’s hardly something you can count on. If the improvement isn’t real, he’s not an NBA player, as he had bland statistical production for a 6’6 senior and he doesn’t profile as anything close to a lead creator.

24. Blake Wesley

Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Shooting Guard. 19.3 years old. 6’4 6’9 wingspan 187 lbs.

Blake Wesley is a young 6’4 guy who shouldered a huge usage rate at Notre Dame…. and that was it. The ability to create shots at a young age is nice and he’s a good athlete with a 6’9 wingspan, but he didn’t bring much else to the table and doesn’t have the highest upside mold as a likely off the bench gunner. He’s another late first gamble.

25. Wendell Moore Jr.

Duke Blue Devils. Wing. 20.9 years old. 6’5.5 7’1 wingspan 217 lbs.

Wendell is a solid athlete with nice strength and length, and he offers a reasonable blend of shooting, rim finishing, passing, decent defense, and passing. He has bad rebound and block rates, which indicate he may not be athletic enough to make a strong impact in the NBA, but Wendell is great value at 28 in a draft where consensus has Ochai 15, as it is unclear what Ochai is superior at other than having a higher usage.

26. Dalen Terry

Arizona Wildcats. Guard. 19.9 years old. 6’7 7’1 wingspan 195 lbs.

Terry is young with nice physical tools but he scored very inefficiently in a low usage role while turning it over a lot, so he probably won’t be efficient enough to be a positive impact NBA player. Nevertheless, he showed excellent passing for a 6’7 guy along with good steals and reasonable shooting indicators, so it’s possible he turns into a useful player.

27. Christain Braun

Kansas Jayhawks. Wing. 21.2 years old. 6’7 6’7 wingspan 209 lbs.

Christain is a hard playing athletic wing, as evidenced by his block and rebound rates, and he plays solid defense. But nothing else stands out in his profile, and his upside looks limited for a 21 year old wing with only a 6’7 wingspan. I think he’s smart and tough enough to carve out a useful role, but I’m also not afraid of passing on him.

28. Jaden Hardy

G League Ignite. Shooting Guard. 20.0 years old. 6’4 6’8 wingspan 198 lbs.

Jaden Hary is young and has a nice handle and project shot, but his only skilled is creating shots for himself, and he was woefully bad at that in the G League, so I would not spend a first round pick on him.

29. Marjon Beauchamp

G League Ignite. Forward. 21.7 years old. 6’6.5 7’1 wingspan 197 lbs.

Marjon has nice length but otherwise he is small for a forward and while he had a reasonably productive G League season it was low usage and far from dominant. Since he is already 21.7 years old, his profile is unexciting. He’s another consensus first round guy that I’m disinterested in spending a first round pick on.

30. Nikola Jovic

Mega Mozzart. Forward. 19.0 years old. 6’11 7’0 wingspan 223 lbs.

Jovic didn’t play well enough for me to be interested in investing a first round pick on him. But he’s young with height and some skill and a team will probably make a first round investment in him so he could become decent.

SECOND ROUNDERS AND UNDRAFTED GUYS

I’m not ranking second rounders, but guys who I think are strong value relative to where consensus has them ranked are: Christain Koloko, Kendall Brown, Andrew Nembhard, Jabari Walker Justin Lewis, Josh Minott, David Roddy, and Gabriele Procida. Farther down the board, fun 2-way and camp invite guys I want to shout out are Darius Days, Kenneth Lofton Jr., Brady Manek, and Justin Bean.