Ace Bailey – 2025 NBA Draft Scouting Report

Measurements and stats current as of May 10, 2025

Ace Bailey is a 6'9", 210-pound forward from Rutgers with a 7'0" wingspan. He’ll be 18.9 years old on draft night, making him one of the youngest players in the class. Bailey projects as a long-term starting-caliber NBA forward with plus size, scoring touch, and rim protection instincts, though his path will require patience.

Projection & Statistical Analysis

Bailey posted a 3.8 BPM as a freshman, which is below the threshold for most one-and-done stars but not disqualifying—especially considering his age and role. His BPM improved to 6.4 against top-50 competition, suggesting he rose to the occasion in meaningful games.

His net rating (+16) reflects real impact: Rutgers was better on both ends with Bailey on the floor. Defensively, he contributed to meaningful team improvements, anchored by his 4.1% block rate—an excellent mark for a forward and a sign of legit weak-side rim protection.

Offensively, he relied heavily on isolation and self-created mid-range shots. He scored in the 99th percentile in isolation, showing skill in tough shot-making. However, this part of his game may not translate to the NBA: he lacks strength, quickness, and a reliable handle, making it unlikely he’ll win consistently in iso situations at the next level.

He also showed limited passing instincts, with a concerning 8.3% assist rate and a negative AST/TO ratio. His tunnel vision is a real limitation. However, this flaw isn’t fatal—other successful NBA wings like Trey Murphy III, Gary Trent Jr., and Harrison Barnes also had low assist rates in college.

Offense

Bailey’s offensive game is centered around tough shot-making and movement-based scoring. His mid-range touch is impressive, but his future success likely depends on shifting away from isolation toward an off-ball role.

He’s very effective shooting off the catch—especially when running into shots or relocating around screens. His 61% floater percentage is a unique strength, highlighting his ability to find scoring angles in space. He also finishes well off cuts and movement plays, scoring efficiently without needing to dominate the ball.

However, his self-creation is limited by a loose handle, lack of core strength, and inability to absorb contact. He struggles to get to the rim and draws few fouls, reflected in a low free throw rate and 69% FT percentage. The latter is concerning given that similar archetypes—like Brandon Miller, Jabari Smith Jr., and Jaden McDaniels—were better from the line. Bailey shot 89% from the line in high school, so the dip may be a fluke, but it’s still a flag.

His finishing also suffers in traffic. While he’s a great vertical athlete in space, he’s not effective at finishing through contact or tight crowds. His 24 dunks on the year showcase his bounce, but most came in open floor or clean-cut opportunities.

In total, Bailey projects best as a movement shooter and secondary scorer. He’ll need to improve his handle, strength, and decision-making to expand his role in the NBA.

Defense

Bailey’s defense is anchored by his rim protection. His 4.1% block rate is outstanding for a freshman forward and reflects a combination of bounce, timing, and willingness. He actively looks to rotate and block shots and has the tools to be a plus weak-side defender.

On the perimeter, he’s just okay. His steal rate is decent, and his length helps cover ground, but he lacks lateral quickness and physical strength. He can be beaten off the dribble by quicker guards or bumped off his spot by stronger wings.

That said, his weaknesses are manageable. If he adds weight and plays the 4 full-time, his rim protection becomes more valuable, and his perimeter liabilities are less exposed. At 210 pounds as a teenager, he has a physical base to build from.

He’s also a solid rebounder—active, long, and capable of contesting above the rim.

Conclusion

Ace Bailey projects as a long-term NBA starter at the forward position, but he will likely take time to get there. His combination of height, length, athleticism, and touch make him a valuable developmental piece in a league that constantly seeks tall wing scorers.

He won’t be a plug-and-play rookie—he needs to improve his handle, strength, finishing in traffic, and decision-making. His free throw rate and low assist percentage cap his offensive ceiling for now, and he hasn’t proven to be a dominant winning player at any level yet.

Still, tall wing shooters are scarce, and Bailey’s off-ball scoring, rim protection, and youth give him a clear NBA pathway.